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Billy Ferguson

Hello! I am a S.V. Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley. My fields of expertise include environmental economics, industrial organization, public, and market design. In my research, I study water markets, property rights, and trade externalities.

I graduated with a PhD in Economics from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2025 and was advised by Ali Yurukoglu, Paul Milgrom, and Lanier Benkard .

I grew up in Kansas (yes, there's no place like home) and studied math in my undergrad at Stanford University.

My email is billyf@berkeley.edu

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Job Market Paper

Trade Frictions in Surface Water Markets [paper]
This paper studies barriers to water trade in California's surface water market. Despite significant price disparities between users, less than 5% of surface water is traded annually. Commonly cited frictions include the costly management of trade externalities due to incomplete property rights, hydrological interdependence, and infrastructural constraints. I build and estimate a model of California's water market to decompose these frictions and simulate counterfactual market designs that balance transaction costs and externalities. My model features agricultural production, urban demand, hydrological externalities, and bilateral transaction costs. I find that incomplete property rights and constraints on an important bottleneck in the system represent significant sources of friction. Despite qualitative concern about the regulatory burden of managing externalities, current policies trade off externalities and transaction costs well. I estimate that new infrastructure coupled with streamlining water rights management would quadruple trade volume, increase agricultural profits by 10%, and increase environmental water supply. While these interventions reduce misallocation amongst farmers, they do not significantly benefit urban buyers.