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Billy Ferguson

Hello! I am a PhD Candidate in Economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on the academic job market in 2024-25. My primary research agenda is on designing water markets and property rights. My fields of expertise include environmental economics, empirical industrial organization, and market design.

My committee is Ali Yurukoglu, Paul Milgrom, and Lanier Benkard.

I grew up in Kansas (yes, there's no place like home) and studied math in my undergrad at Stanford University.

My email is billyf@stanford.edu

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Job Market Paper

Trade Frictions in Surface Water Markets [paper]
This paper studies the barriers to water trade in California's surface water market. Despite significant price disparities between users, less than 5% of surface water is traded annually. Commonly cited frictions include incomplete property rights, costly management of externalities, and infrastructural constraints. I build and estimate a model of California's water market to decompose these frictions and simulate counterfactuals. My model features agricultural production, urban demand, hydrological externalities, and bilateral transaction costs. I find that incomplete property rights and constraints on an important bottleneck in the system represent significant sources of friction. Despite qualitative concern about the regulatory burden of managing externalities, this friction is relatively modest. I estimate that constructing new infrastructure coupled with streamlining water rights management would quadruple trade volume, increase agricultural profits by 10%, and increase environmental water supply. While these interventions reduce misallocation amongst farmers, they do not significantly benefit urban buyers.